Scenario: there is a machine at a casino that hits jackpot 1/100 times it is used. The probability that one does NOT hit jackpot on their first spin is .99^1, the second .99^2, and on their nth .99^n (hoping my math is right). As the number of non-winning spins increases, many people would say the machine is “due” because the probability of the losing streak continuing gets lower and lower, but AFAIK that is not valid. Why is that?
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The example of a slot machine at a casino isn’t a good one because *by law* they must payout based on their listed probabilities within a certain period of time.
So while most of the statistic arguments on this topic will say things like…. “a coin has no memory of the previous flips so each flip is a totally independent event” …..slot machines quite literally *do* have a memory and the outcome of the next spin is actually dependent on the previous spins.
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