Scenario: there is a machine at a casino that hits jackpot 1/100 times it is used. The probability that one does NOT hit jackpot on their first spin is .99^1, the second .99^2, and on their nth .99^n (hoping my math is right). As the number of non-winning spins increases, many people would say the machine is “due” because the probability of the losing streak continuing gets lower and lower, but AFAIK that is not valid. Why is that?
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Each time you spin the machine it’s a separate go from the last time with all the parameters reset.
Think of it this way: We can play a simple game where we put 99 of white marbles in a bag with one black ones. A group o people draw the black one, you win, otherwise you loose.
If each person reveals their draw but holds onto it then the number of loosing options goes down with each draw so the 5th person has a 1/96 chance of winning instead of a 1/100. This is not how gambling machines work however.
Now you put the marble you took out of the bag back in each time then shake it around, then there’s always a 1/100 chance of winning because there’s 100 marbles in there to choose from. It doesn’t matter how many times you have drawn before, so long as you always have 99 white and 1 black the odds are the same. This is how the machine works which is why the odds don’t improve with each attempt.
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