Scenario: there is a machine at a casino that hits jackpot 1/100 times it is used. The probability that one does NOT hit jackpot on their first spin is .99^1, the second .99^2, and on their nth .99^n (hoping my math is right). As the number of non-winning spins increases, many people would say the machine is “due” because the probability of the losing streak continuing gets lower and lower, but AFAIK that is not valid. Why is that?
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Even using what you said, you could do the math and see that with a 1/100 chance of hitting the jackpot, doing 100 spins gives you a 36.6% chance of not hitting. Hell, you could put in 200 and see that there’s still a 13.3% chance you win nothing after 200 spins.
Long story short a 1 in 100 chance at something random and independent DOES not mean that if you do something 100 (or even 200 or 500) you are guaranteed to win.
Also, many people are using coin flips as an example. Many slot players mistakenly believe that slot machine spins are different than flipping a coin, and are not independent events (meaning previous events do not impact future events). These players believe that slot machines do keep a history, and change odds positively or negatively based on how much the machine has paid out. This is patently false though. Slot machines have the same odds of winning any prize whether it is your first pull or your hundredth. You have the same odds of winning a jackpot after losing on 100 straight pulls as you would if you just hit the jackpot. Slot machines are just random number generators with glitzy front ends and noises.
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