Scenario: there is a machine at a casino that hits jackpot 1/100 times it is used. The probability that one does NOT hit jackpot on their first spin is .99^1, the second .99^2, and on their nth .99^n (hoping my math is right). As the number of non-winning spins increases, many people would say the machine is “due” because the probability of the losing streak continuing gets lower and lower, but AFAIK that is not valid. Why is that?
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you’re semi-right, which may be contributing to your confusion. the probability of getting a losing streak that long is exactly what you calculated. however the wheel spin doesn’t care or remember what any of the previous spins were. so it could be spin 1 or spin 10,000 – the probability of that particular spin is still 1/100
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