Flipping 5 tails in a row, it’s still a 50/50 chance to get a tail in the next flip?

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Flipping a tail is a 1/2 chance, but flipping 6 tails in a row is a 1/64, so if after flipping 5 tails, why is it incorrect to say that your chance of flipping another tail is now lower, like you’re “bound” to get a head? I know this is the gambler’s fallacy, but why is it a fallacy? I get that each coin flip is independent, but it feels right (as fallacies often do) that in consecutive flips the previous events matter? Please, help me see it in a different way.

In: Mathematics

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Anonymous 0 Comments

Each flip of a single coin is an independent event with a 50:50 chance for each option.

So, while the odds of flipping a coin, and having it come up “heads” 6X in a row is 1/64, each INDIVIDUAL flip is still a 1/2.

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