Some of that, yes. It’s not unheard of in science to store samples for many decades. I’ve worked with samples from as early as the 1950’s.
Those tests are long and difficult, though. They are often supplemented by “accelerated weathering” tests. The exact role of the paint changes what these look like. They probably involve sunlight and water, possibly salt, maybe heat, intentionally scuffing the paint, electronic testing, striking the paint with a calibrated hammer, or any host of other things that may simulate real-world conditions taken to the extreme.
By comparing the results of long-term tests and accelerated tests of the same paint, you can make predictions about new paints based solely on the short-term results.
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