short answer: its *always* splitting and fissioning, but its a question how fast its happening. we can count the rate at which it splits naturally, and based on that, we can get a estimate of how long it would take for half a given sample to fission and spilt, which is 4.5 billion years.
its like being able to say “this person can walk at 4 miles an hour. ergo, he would take 100 hours of non stop walking to cover 400 miles”. we are extrapolating based on known data.
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