How are wind forecasts developed in weather forecasting? How is a single summary vector prediction produced for a geographical area such as a town?


Two related questions here:

* What information is used to forecast the wind vector at a particular time? To a first approximation, is this mostly a factor of macro-scale movement of air (e.g. cold fronts, etc.)?
* How does a forecaster arrive at a single prediction vector for an area (and a range of time such as an hour)? Are there many vectors at different point positions which are simply averaged? Is there any “risk adjustment” or bias towards the higher wind speeds that might be present? (for example, highly turbulent air might average out to zero, but that doesn’t sound like a useful summary).

In: Earth Science