How did global carbon dioxide emissions decline only by 6.4% in 2020 despite major global lockdowns and travel restrictions? What would have to happen for them to drop by say 50%?

Question

Source for the 6.4% number: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00090-3

In: 5

Answer 1

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Answer 2

Burning coal for electricity, burning fossil fuels for manufacturing and agriculture all worked without significant drop during the pandemic.

Answer 3

Most CO2 emissions are from agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and power generation, and none of those things stopped during covid. Some of them, at best, slowed a little bit. Personal transport is a source of emissions, but not a very large one taken by itself, so the fact that (some) people weren’t commuting or traveling had an effect, but not a huge one. Transport in total is only about 15% of global emissions, and most of that is shipping, not people. (You can see the totals [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions#/media/File:Global_GHG_Emissions_by_Sector_2016.png).)

Answer 4

Top 5 sources of global CO2 emissions – 31% electricity and heat generation, 15% transportation, 12% manufacturing, 11% agriculture, 6% forestry. Only transportation was significantly impacted by lockdowns, and cargo still moved and lots of people still travelled. 6.4% seems about right.

To drop by 50%, we’d have to largely stop using fossil fuels, or at least decease their use substantially.