They weren’t starting from nothing 🙁 O-ring failure was a known concern and conditions were unusually cold and wet (due to melting ice); after the disaster they ran experiments to show what happened to the O-rings under the same conditions.
The disaster was primarily the result of a terrible judgment call in the face of ample concern of a long-standing known problem exacerbated by launch day environmental conditions. It didn’t take much to verify the cause as they already had a good idea.
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