How do bookmakers establish odds if sports events are unpredictable, considering the multitude of factors at play that prevent precise probability estimation?
In: Mathematics
they guess, then fudge the numbers a little in “thier” favour so over the majority of games, they will come out on top, even if they lose a bit on any specific unexpected event.
basically they spread the cost over lots of games and bets, kind of like how insurance companies eat the cost of big payouts over millions of customers.
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