They alway distinguish between a model update and a model redesign.
With a model update, where there might be cosmetic changes, updates to the display, etc., the recent history is reasonably good.
For model redesigns, they make it clear it’s a redesign, they don’t do specific predictions, but give a general sense based on the manufacture’s past history. Often a redesign still uses an existing engine or other parts.
The utilize stats from consumers in terms of number of repairs, types of repairs, how widespread it is on a particular vehicle, and may use that data to project for newer vehicles based on what has or has not changed for new models — maybe the body and interior are different but the engines are basically the same, and the new suspension has been used in another of the make’s vehicles for a couple years already, and those give at least some projection for reliability.
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