Why do generals attempting to coup always storm the palace? What happens next? Why do ordinary soldiers follow them? Are they in on the plot?
In: Economics
For a coup to work, enough people with power (and that probably means the military rank and file as they have guns) need to believe and support the coup leader. And they need to believe that the current leader is not rightfully in that position, either because they obtained the position illegally, they are seen as too corrupt, they are seen as traitors to the country, etc…. Note that the corruption of the current leader doesn’t have to be true, the coup followers just have to believe it’s true.
That is tricky because the leader of the coup has to really know that “his” people are truly behind him/her and that the enough other people are not truly behind the current leader or the coup could go very badly.
But if the coup leader is charismatic enough and has developed enough loyalty so that his people are willing to fight and die for him/her, and there are enough of those loyal people to pull it off, they can try.
That’s why coups are generally military leaders because they inspire loyalty in the people with the most guns and guns mean power.
So, the military leader convinces his people that he/she should be in charge and that the “right thing to do” is to oust the current traitorous bastard, then they use their guns to overtake the capital and capture the current leader and, providing there is not enough opposition to the coup (at least not enough opposition from people with power – which means guns), the military leader is now de facto running the country because no one can stand up to them.
Even if all the rest of the people in the country think the coup is not legal and that the original leader is the rightful one, what can they do when the organization with the most guns supports the coup? It’s also why the coup leader will often say “the old leader was a traitor and a criminal” and “as soon as things calm down, we’ll have elections” but they won’t. They just say that to pacify the regular people.
This is why it is very, very important that all the people with guns believe in the rule of law and that the documents that define the country (i.e. the constitutions) are the MOST IMPORTANT laws to follow and even hold them sacred. You don’t want the people with guns to believe that specific individuals are the most important thing and the key to a great country. As soon as people tie their loyalty to an individual and not the organizing framework, you are going to have trouble.
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