I was rewatching an old video on YouTube and the guy was able to walk again after 10 months of practicing yoga and losing 140 lbs. If no one on earth can exactly predict when someone will die or if they’ll be able to walk again, how and why do doctors come up with these predictions?
https://youtu.be/qX9FSZJu448
In: Mathematics
It’s a weird story he was told by the VA doctor about not being able to walk unassisted due to the chronic pain in his knees and back then gained the 150+ lbs from giving up and not exercising anymore.
He must have done something about the pain🤷🏻♂️
I also wonder how much of it is how the doctor explained / what the patient heard.
Example: you received a specific cancer diagnosis. Your doctor informs you that the 5 year survival rate is 10%, and probably explains more about what that means. But some people might hear ‘I’m going to die in the next 5 years’, which is not what is being said. So if they live to 10 years, they might say ‘see, doctors know nothing’, but the doctor gave accurate statistics. It’s just that many people (doctors included actually) aren’t great at interpreting statistics.
I am a doctor. Have been for 10+ years. I have maybe a handful of times given someone a prognosis of when they will die, almost always only when they are already on their deathbed. And the estimate is extremely vague, like “within a few days or weeks”, because you cannot know. I never say “you have 6 months to live” or whatever specific like that, because that’s just guessing, and you are much more likely to be wrong than right. I hate it when other docs do this, but fortunately most I work with do not do it either.
I have seen enough prognoses go wildly wrong to know better than to make glorified guesses.
mostly from experience, research, other doctors’ opinions. judging by majority. if most of their patients with a certain disease died in similar amount of days then they just expect the same result with the rest. however, these predictions and expectations can motivate some people so greatly that they manage to overcome many many obstacles and recover.
the human body is much more amazing than we know. it is capable of things beyind our current understanding. just the pure will to live can give someone such strength that their body will heal completely. that’s why these predictions remain just guesses, after all.
There will always be outliers who defy expectation. However, statistically speaking, most aren’t so lucky. The doctor wants to give people an understanding of their likely future so that the patient may start to make informed choices about what they want to do.
To make these predictions, doctors would look at the person’s injuries and compare them to other similar cases. They know that most people who sustain certain types of injures tend not to be able to walk again. While occasionally someone might be truly lucky and get mobility back, the doctor’s responsibility is to inform the patient of their likely future so that they can adjust and cope accordingly.
As for predicting death, it is similar. Doctors would compare the stage of the patient’s terminal illness against other cases to get an early estimate. Due to all the studies that have been done on such illnesses, doctors know how long it typically takes a given terminal illness to kill someone after it reaches a certain stage. Following that, they would watch the patient to see how quickly the disease progresses for them, and possibly adjust that estimate.
Well that’s what they are, predictions. Its a guess. Usually through some experience or research. Sometimes doctors are wrong. Sometimes weatherpeople.
Statistics are also used. Like, say if you break a certain bone then the chart would say that’s the bone that you need to walk.
Same with living. Like if someone is in a certain stage of cancer, they might live the predicted 4 weeks or they may pass away sooner. Or later. They also could be wrong and not have cancer.
For death, we guess.
It’s an educated guess, but still.
Mum had cancer they said maybe 3 months. She died in 2 weeks.
I’ve had patient’s linger for days to weeks. Others go downhill very quickly and pass.
Analysis of decades of patient data has allowed doctors to give fairly accurate predictions regarding outcomes
Others have said it, but the simplest answer is statistics. If 90% of people at the current state patient is in die within a year, they can inform the patient that. It doesnt mean the patient will certainly be dead in a year, but theres a high likelihood of that.
Its just an educated guess from my experience, and has definite swings in accuracy. My grandfather with over 30 cancer lumps had 6 months to live, he made it 3 years. My sister in laws father had brain cancer and they gave him a year and he was dead in 2 months. An ex’s grandfather had prostate cancer, gave him 6 months and he made it about that, so pretty close there.
*side note: cancer sucks
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