23 years in the fire department here.
We can’t always determine the exact cause especially with extensive damage.
It’s science mixed with art for a lack of better words.
With the cigarette example you used, let’s say someone’s house burned. Patterns indicate it started in their living room and the worst damage was in the area of the remnants of a chair. We’d dig that area out and look for sources of ignition such as electronics. If none are found we’d assume it was a different source. We would interview the residents and if they said a certain person always sat in that chair we’d ask more questions. Let’s just say they say he sat there and smoked a lot and was even sitting there an hour before the fire started.
So what we couldn’t say for certain is that the fire started in that chair and was for sure caused by the resident smoking. What we can say is the fire started at or near the chair, that no ignition sources such as electronics were in that area, and the fire was most likely caused by another ignition source. We can take samples to be tested for accelerants as well but if those aren’t present what’s the most likely cause? Most likely the resident who was known to smoke in the chair accidentally discarded smoking materials. They continued to smolder until the chair caught fire. The fire then spread to items nearby then the structure itself.
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