How is the lifetime ovarian cancer risk for women 1 in 78, but the following was also in the same information set from NIH and ACS:
Starting at age 40, the 10 year probability is 0.1% (1 in 870) of getting ovarian cancer. It then goes up to 0.2% (1 in 474), 0.3% (1 in 327) and 0.4% (1 in 265) at 60, 70, and 80 years old respectively. The lifetime risk of ovarian cancer is 1.3% or 1 in 78.
The ten year probability number at any given point is so small, yet the 1 in 78 is far from small.
In: 2
Lifetime risk is cumulative. 1/78 lifetime risk = 1.3% lifetime risk.
Lifetime risk = Sum of all decade-wise risk, adjusted for life expectancy.
0.1% (40s) + 0.3% (50s…etc) + 0.2% + 0.4% + 0.4% = 1.4%
Life expectancy is almost 80. ACS + NIH may use different data, and definitely have more robust methods than back of napkin math. But broad strokes those numbers do track. Hope this helps.
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