How do ICBM early warning systems differentiate between a real threat and a launch of a normal rocket intended to go to space?
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A rocket that’s just been launched has a path it will follow if it shuts its engine off. That arc will get further & further from the launch site as the rocket burns. An early warning system (radar and/or satellite) can track the rocket and predict where it will hit the earth.
If the predicted path never intersects with your (or an allied) country, then no problem. If it intersects your country you want to track it really close. If the rocket keeps burning and the track passes beyond your country, then there’s no problem.
A typical orbital rocket from Russia towards the ISS might have a predicted ground track that goes over Russia, China, Japan, North Pacific, South Pacific, South America, Southern Atlantic, Africa, orbit.
A typical orbital rocket from Russia for a polar orbit (orbiting over the North & South poles) might have a predicted ground track that goes over Russia, Russia, Arctic, Canada, USA, Mexico, South America, Antarctic, South Pacific, orbit.
All of these predicted ground tracks are from the first few minutes while the rocket is still over Russia.
An ICBM from Russia might have a predicted ground track that goes over Russia, Arctic, Canada, Washington DC, stop. That’s when the early warning system generates an alert that there was a launch 2 minutes ago and is predicted to hit Washington DC in 17 minutes.
Also, rocket launches are announced ahead of time so people at the early warning system can predict what a launch will look like – e.g. a single launch from Baikonur heading North East.
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