How do ICBM early warning systems differentiate between a real threat and a launch of a normal rocket intended to go to space?
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An ICBM is usually very large and can’t easily be moved, so is a rocket. It is not particularly difficult for satellites & other intelligence gathering methods to determine if a launch site is housing ICBMs or space rockets.
Civilian launch sites typically aren’t hidden or concealed, and non military rocket launches aren’t usually kept secret. Such launches are usually anounced publicly well in advance. So it is reasonable to assume that an unexpected launch coming from “the middle of nowhere” is most likely an ICBM.
Another important thing to note is that ICBMs don’t have to be intercepted at launch. If a suspicious launch is detected, you still have a fair amount of time to determine if it’s an ICBM or a rocket. That could involve angry phone calls to foreign leaders, trying to get visual id on the missile itself, looking at it’s radar signature, or simply looking at it’s flight path.
Meanwhile, preperations can be made to intercept it if it does turn out to be an ICBM. But intercepts usually don’t happen until the missile is on it’s final approach, at which point, you not only know that it definately is an ICBM, but you also probably know what it’s target is.
ICBMs are also typically launched in groups. In most ICBM attack scenarios you will have multiple coordinated launches. Space rockets are usually launched one at a time.
So, the short answer is that in most cases, we’ll know wether it’s an ICBM or a rocket before it even leaves the ground. And in the few cases where we don’t, it isn’t particularly difficult to figure out before we have to do something about it.
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