How do ICBM early warning systems differentiate between a real threat and a launch of a normal rocket intended to go to space?
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Announced launches and radar.
Countries with space programs announce launches ahead of time, so everybody knows that there’s going to be a launch, and that one rocket going up isn’t an attack. Also, a launch from Cape Canaveral or the Vostochny Cosmodrome is less likely to be a threat than one from North Dakota or Svobodnyy.
If a launch is detected, whether announced or not, all of the major nuclear powers will track it on radar. We’re all very good at figuring out where a rocket is headed. If it’s headed to orbit, it’s probably not a threat, especially if it was announced. If it’s going to fall into the Sea of Japan, it’s probably not a threat. If it’s going to land in a populated area outside of the launching country, it’s going to cause a lot of people to start paying attention. Also, if more than a single rocket is launched, it’s almost certainly going to be seen as a potential attack.
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