How do ICBM early warning systems differentiate between a real threat and a launch of a normal rocket intended to go to space?
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Multiple overlapping detection systems on both sides combined with a lot of historical and technical data. We know where most of their sites are, they know where most of our sites are. Any activity at those sites is closely monitored. That gives us indicators of what to look for. Anything below a certain threshold is sifted out through analysis.
Regular space launches are heavily scheduled events with a lot of activity and notice.
With ICBMs part of the strategy includes volume of fire.
While one ICBM could do terrible damage if it hits, a single ICBM would have almost zero chance of penetrating the defenses to reach its target. Enough ICBMs would have to be fired to overwhelm the targets defenses.
The systems act as a deterrent. In an actual attack the first thing would be to disable/bypass the early warning and defense systems.
The old joke is: If you can see it coming, you’re not the target.
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