How do ICBM early warning systems differentiate between a real threat and a launch of a normal rocket intended to go to space?
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Announced launches and radar.
Countries with space programs announce launches ahead of time, so everybody knows that there’s going to be a launch, and that one rocket going up isn’t an attack. Also, a launch from Cape Canaveral or the Vostochny Cosmodrome is less likely to be a threat than one from North Dakota or Svobodnyy.
If a launch is detected, whether announced or not, all of the major nuclear powers will track it on radar. We’re all very good at figuring out where a rocket is headed. If it’s headed to orbit, it’s probably not a threat, especially if it was announced. If it’s going to fall into the Sea of Japan, it’s probably not a threat. If it’s going to land in a populated area outside of the launching country, it’s going to cause a lot of people to start paying attention. Also, if more than a single rocket is launched, it’s almost certainly going to be seen as a potential attack.
It’s common for space agencies to communicate to their counterparts in other countries. They in turn communicate to their military counterparts.
When military rockets are tested, the same type of communications happens.
Only rogue states like North Korea don’t follow this pattern. That being said, intelligence agencies usually predict these launches fairly well due to the increased activity on the ground that can be picked up by surveillance satellites, and by intercepting communications (signals intelligence).
Something else missed among the responses is where the rocket is launched from. Space launch sites are well known, and most ICBM sites are known (even if it’s not public knowledge). Launch detection systems almost always pinpoint the exact location of a launch, so it’s pretty clear right off the bat what the rocket likely is. There’s always the possibility for malicious actions, which is where everything else comes into play, especially trajectory.
To add on:
We pretty much know where rockets can get launched from, and are monitoring those. We know *when* a planned launch will be, and we watch very closely during that time. We watch to make sure that the communication satellite launch is actually launched to a geosynchronous orbit trajectory.
We also watch so that we can then train other members on a launch. Look, guys, did you see a launch? We also can also train our software on the launches. Our satellites can pick up a bunch of *events*, so knowing what is and is not a launch gets important.
Source: 2nd Space Warning Squadron team member a long time ago (before SBIRS)
An ICBM is usually very large and can’t easily be moved, so is a rocket. It is not particularly difficult for satellites & other intelligence gathering methods to determine if a launch site is housing ICBMs or space rockets.
Civilian launch sites typically aren’t hidden or concealed, and non military rocket launches aren’t usually kept secret. Such launches are usually anounced publicly well in advance. So it is reasonable to assume that an unexpected launch coming from “the middle of nowhere” is most likely an ICBM.
Another important thing to note is that ICBMs don’t have to be intercepted at launch. If a suspicious launch is detected, you still have a fair amount of time to determine if it’s an ICBM or a rocket. That could involve angry phone calls to foreign leaders, trying to get visual id on the missile itself, looking at it’s radar signature, or simply looking at it’s flight path.
Meanwhile, preperations can be made to intercept it if it does turn out to be an ICBM. But intercepts usually don’t happen until the missile is on it’s final approach, at which point, you not only know that it definately is an ICBM, but you also probably know what it’s target is.
ICBMs are also typically launched in groups. In most ICBM attack scenarios you will have multiple coordinated launches. Space rockets are usually launched one at a time.
So, the short answer is that in most cases, we’ll know wether it’s an ICBM or a rocket before it even leaves the ground. And in the few cases where we don’t, it isn’t particularly difficult to figure out before we have to do something about it.
Both ICBM and normal rocket launches only take a few minutes. After the rocket has used up all its fuel it is easy to see where it will go. Early warning systems simply wait for the rocket to stop burning, and then check if the rocket will hit the country or stay in orbit.
Only one missile yes, but don’t forget about MIRVs. That one missile can be carrying up to 12 *Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles.* Unfortunately, one missile does not mean just one bomb. Sometimes a few of the MIRVs are decoy vehicles and programmed with trajectories designed to be attractive to defensive systems to waste resources.
A rocket that’s just been launched has a path it will follow if it shuts its engine off. That arc will get further & further from the launch site as the rocket burns. An early warning system (radar and/or satellite) can track the rocket and predict where it will hit the earth.
If the predicted path never intersects with your (or an allied) country, then no problem. If it intersects your country you want to track it really close. If the rocket keeps burning and the track passes beyond your country, then there’s no problem.
A typical orbital rocket from Russia towards the ISS might have a predicted ground track that goes over Russia, China, Japan, North Pacific, South Pacific, South America, Southern Atlantic, Africa, orbit.
A typical orbital rocket from Russia for a polar orbit (orbiting over the North & South poles) might have a predicted ground track that goes over Russia, Russia, Arctic, Canada, USA, Mexico, South America, Antarctic, South Pacific, orbit.
All of these predicted ground tracks are from the first few minutes while the rocket is still over Russia.
An ICBM from Russia might have a predicted ground track that goes over Russia, Arctic, Canada, Washington DC, stop. That’s when the early warning system generates an alert that there was a launch 2 minutes ago and is predicted to hit Washington DC in 17 minutes.
Also, rocket launches are announced ahead of time so people at the early warning system can predict what a launch will look like – e.g. a single launch from Baikonur heading North East.
According to Emmett Fitz-Hume, the rockets are source-programmable. Therefore, if you enter the launch sequence in reverse …….
Generally, space agencies announce well ahead of time that they’re planning a launch, so if there is supposed to be a spacecraft launch at a certain day and time, and then the detection systems pick up a launch from the announced location at the announced date and time, it can be reasonably assumed to be a spacecraft launch. Exercise submarine ballistic missile launches are similarly announced ahead of time as missile tests
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