If something has a 5% chance of success, and I’ve failed 19 consecutive times, the next time independently still has a 5% chance of success, fairly low, rather than a guaranteed 100% chance of success in view of the previous attempts. How does this relate to updating percentages in light of new evidence, or is that something separate?
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The key to this is whether or not each each attempt is independent of other attempts, or if it’s influenced by them. For example If you flip a coin 20 times in a row, each flip is independent of the previous or successive flips. They don’t impact it at all.
But if you are drawing a colored ball out of a bin, and removing that ball from the sample, that does influence subsequent picks.
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