How do small percentages continue to work out in the long run?

Question

If something has a 5% chance of success, and I’ve failed 19 consecutive times, the next time independently still has a 5% chance of success, fairly low, rather than a guaranteed 100% chance of success in view of the previous attempts. How does this relate to updating percentages in light of new evidence, or is that something separate?

In: 6

Answer 1

>How does this relate to updating percentages in light of new evidence, or is that something separate?

That’s something completely separate. New evidence would completely invalidate what you previously believed and whatever model you were using. All of that math needs to be thrown out the window because you have been wrong the entire time.

This has nothing to do with probabilities as you described, correctly, before that.