How do small percentages continue to work out in the long run?

Question

If something has a 5% chance of success, and I’ve failed 19 consecutive times, the next time independently still has a 5% chance of success, fairly low, rather than a guaranteed 100% chance of success in view of the previous attempts. How does this relate to updating percentages in light of new evidence, or is that something separate?

In: 6

Answer 1

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