Not related directly you the question but the US Geological Survey has a tool called PAGER that immediately estimates the range of human fatalities and economic losses immediately with each earthquake. The tool uses location, depth, magnitude, population, and local building materials to estimate deaths and costs. It’s useful to get aid going quickly to an area that may have lost communications. It’s currently estimating 47% chance of 1k to 10k fatalities, and a 20% chance of 10k to 100k fatalities.
Turkey and Syria will need a lot of help, quickly.
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000jllz/pager
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