How do we get a realistic estimate of deaths in a war if one side intentionally does not make their figures known?
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Educated guess work, in ww2 russian death toll is somewhere between the official toll 20 million durring the soviet era and the estimated 26 million was the new official number post soviet but some scholars place it over 40 million, representing about 1/3 of the Russian population
Edit: u/trulyindependent asked for a source and i looked into it, i was off by ~half on both figures so i changed it im sorry
After the war, serious academics will investigate the records, but during a war that sort of detailed information can’t be accurately calculated.
There are no accurate casualty counts ever. Not ever in the history of war. There are only estimates, made by the victors.
You can’t really. The best you can do is take note of both sides “confirmed” kills, compare it to reported deaths on both sides, take in the ones reported as missing. Hope both sides keep accurate records, especially for things like POWs who will throw off your counts. Then look at what is reported post war when possible. Then accept your numbers are, at best, an educated guess.
I heard on a Dutch mainstream news outlet that Ukraine actually asked the Red Cross to do death counts in Ukraine. That’s a great move to get better numbers out there, because it’s an independent third party.
Is the Red Cross everywhere and will they catch every death: no, war is too chaotic for that. However, whatever the Red Cross lists as Russian and Ukrainian deaths, show at least the minimum, and those numbers are reliable.
This early in the war, all report aren’t accurate. For instance Russian losses are unclear in the Ukraine Invasio, Russia says 0 right now and Ukraine says 3,000. At this point in a war, we see the real-life “fog of war” that obscures everything and makes estimation hard. The added modern concept of fake news, doctored footage and misinformation makes it that much harder.
If one side is hiding casualties, it basically does come down to the other side reporting the enemies they’ve killed. Which Ukraine has been doing, they have been taking pictures of ID, name tapes and dog tags of Russian soldiers they kill and recover in combat. I have personally been compiling a list of confirmed Russia KIAs I’ve seen online, and my list says 279 confirmed Russian deaths and 87 confirmed POWs. Independent journalists and fact-checkers are going to be the best way to report casualties probably until after the war and a Russian change in governance.
But Russia lying doesn’t change all the mothers, siblings, wives and children whose son or brother or father isn’t coming home. Unlike governments, the people don’t forget the names of their loved ones and they don’t forget they didn’t come back. Over time, that is how researches build the most accurate counts.
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