Everything I see is just a a video of a flash of light. How are we so confident of the source of light?
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We do not know of any mechanism that could cause a flash like that where the source is Jupiter itself. So the reasonable conclusion is an impact. Or at least I have not seen anyone suggest that is what it is.
Look at the impact of [Comet_Shoemaker – Levy_9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comet_Shoemaker%E2%80%93Levy_9#Impacts) where it was tracked before impact so we know the source of it. So we can compare it to the current observation.
If you look at scientific papers later they will likely say something that the observations are consistent with an impact to a high degree not that we are sure that it is an impact.
We also do not know if Jupiter has a surface at all. It is a gas giant so what we see is gases in the atmosphere, not the surface. There might be a gradual change in it from high-pressure gas to liquid hydrogen and then perhaps metallic solid hydrogen. So if the source of the light is Jupiter is something that occurs in the atmosphere, not from a surface.
Jupiter is big – it’s basically a failed companion star to the Sun. It 1321 times volumetrically larger and has almost 318 times more mass than the Earth. Consequently the escape velocity on Jupiter is 59,500 m/s compared to Earth’s 11,186 m/s.
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Occam’s razor. We know of lots of things that could cause that kind of flash by hitting the surface, because we’ve seen it happen before.
We don’t know of anything that could cause something to fly out of Jupiter like that, so there’s no real reason to assume it would be that.
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