I have crewed for a balloon team for a number of years. Balloon festivals are also typically competitions. The pilots will either have a bean bag they have to throw at a target, or there will be a balloon that has to be chased, or even a giant pole with car keys on top they try to snag, among other tasks. By carefully reviewing wind directions at different altitudes, they can then go up or down to go in different directions. I saw a guy go over the same spot *3 times* in the 2 hour window they were allotted; he noticed that the winds went in 3 wildly different directions and was able to loop back to nearly where he started (his flight path looked like big triangles). I have also seen somebody win that free car when he started miles away.
So while you don’t have a true steering mechanism, pilots definitely know where they are going and have a pretty good idea of how to get there.
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