The Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, has an app that provides live predictions on the likelihood of lightning occurring in a specific area within 7, 14, or 21 minutes. How do they predict such an unpredictable event like a thunderstorm?
In: Physics
conditions and geography are excellent predictors of lightning:
storms move in predictable paths; the conditions for lighting are known
if a storm is 5miles from of your location and has no lighting reported; and your area has no difference in atmospheric conditions your chance of lighting in 7 minutes is statistically 0%
if a storm is 10 miles from your location; has a lot of reported lightning, and your conditions are similar there is ha high statistical chance of lighting in 21 minutes
if a storm is 10 miles away with a lot of lighting; but there is a mountain in between you that causes storms to disappate your chance of lighting is low
It is probably not “physics” at all. It is just observation and statistics.
Lightning occurs because of a buildup of charge within the atmosphere suddenly being released, and most commonly this will happen in storms due to the greater movement of air transferring more charge. Lightning is very bright and it is possible to even see it from space. In fact there are satellites that continuously image Earth looking for lighting strikes so we can get live data on when and where they happen.
Now it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that if lighting has struck in a particular area 10 times in the last half hour then the chances are fairly high that it will strike in the area at some point in the next half hour, right? Certainly more likely than a different area which hasn’t had any strikes in the last hour.
They don’t really need any other information to start working out live predictions and probabilities. They don’t need physics simulations, they don’t need to parse complex meteorological data (although they could).
It’s less physics and more history and statistics.
Simple we have recorded lightning strikes that occur in what region and weather conditions (and a bunch of other things) then assume similar frequencies of lightning strikes when there is similar region and weather conditions
dude that’s wild. They probably use radar and weather patterns to see when clouds are ready to party. it’s like Mother Nature’s little dance number.
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