The Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, has an app that provides live predictions on the likelihood of lightning occurring in a specific area within 7, 14, or 21 minutes. How do they predict such an unpredictable event like a thunderstorm?
In: Physics
It’s less physics and more history and statistics.
Simple we have recorded lightning strikes that occur in what region and weather conditions (and a bunch of other things) then assume similar frequencies of lightning strikes when there is similar region and weather conditions
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