The Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, has an app that provides live predictions on the likelihood of lightning occurring in a specific area within 7, 14, or 21 minutes. How do they predict such an unpredictable event like a thunderstorm?
In: Physics
conditions and geography are excellent predictors of lightning:
storms move in predictable paths; the conditions for lighting are known
if a storm is 5miles from of your location and has no lighting reported; and your area has no difference in atmospheric conditions your chance of lighting in 7 minutes is statistically 0%
if a storm is 10 miles from your location; has a lot of reported lightning, and your conditions are similar there is ha high statistical chance of lighting in 21 minutes
if a storm is 10 miles away with a lot of lighting; but there is a mountain in between you that causes storms to disappate your chance of lighting is low
Latest Answers