Very good observations, and very good computations.
Claude-Louis Navier and Sir George Stokes collectively formulated the rules for how all fluids move in the 19th century. These formulas are incredibly hard to solve accurately, but can be approximated to any accuracy using computers.
Using thousands of weather stations, satellites and weather balloons, we collect lots of data about the weather and use these as initial conditions for the Navier-Stokes equations. Supercomputers then pump out results.
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