Sometimes we hear stuff like “we’re about 6 years away from finding a cure for (blank)” or something like 10 years away from self driving cars being a reliable mode of transportation
How do they know even an estimate of how close or far away we are from these things?
In: Technology
It depends on the thing they are talking about, and a little on who is saying it.
For the first one, if you are talking about medicine like you mention, drug companies know how long it takes from getting a research grant, to finding a suitable candidate(s) for trial, to running the trials, to getting federal approvals, to ramping up synthesizing the drug. So this could be that they are X of Y years into what they believe is a promising candidate so they are reporting it will be Y-X years.
For other cases, like the self driving cars, they are looking at advancements made in the field in the last 20 years, 10 years, 5 years, 18 months, etc, and then extrapolating from there that if we continue to advance at such and such a pace, then it would be X years. This is also similar to other claims like “scientists believe the oceans levels will rise 10-12 inches by 2050”. This is based on years of tracking that, watching trends in that, and extrapolating that out over a longer period.
But to the second point, it’s wise to also look at who is saying it and what is their motivation. Claims are often made like this for marketing and/or research grant purposes.
For the first part, re marketing, take Elon Musk for example. He has been saying “we will have fully autonomous cars within the next year” for 10 years straight. Even if you want to be altruistic and believe he meant it the first couple of years he said it, now when he says it, it’s because he is selling Teslas with a full self-driving subscription that you are required to buy when you buy the car, without that feature being available now, but solely in the hopes that it will be available in the near future. If he came out now and said “it will be 10 years before we have fully autonomous cars”, well most people would think “I’ll probably get a new car by then, so no reason to pay Musk all that money for a feature I will never need.” But by consistently saying it is just a year away, then people are more likely to buy it assuming they could make use of it.
For the second part, re: research grants, if a pharmaceutical scientist is saying “a cure for Parkinson’s will be available in 10 years”, it could just be that person has an idea, but he knows he needs funding to finish his or her research to actually test it. By claiming the cure is close, he or she could more easily get research grants from people thinking “oh we are really close, I want to help get it across the finish line!!”
Latest Answers