There is post on a sub I frequent that said there is going to be a [comet](https://www.npr.org/2024/10/10/nx-s1-5148895/how-to-see-comet-c-2023-a3-tsuchinshan-atlas) that won’t be seen for another 80,000 years.
How do we know this particular comet has an 80,000 year long orbit? What are those observations that tell us something like that?
80,000 years ago, as fas as I know, people weren’t writing down astronomical observations. And even if we did, we aren’t relying on their observations today. The post says they discovered this comet in 2023.
What’s our justification for saying something so definitive that this comet won’t be seen for another 80,000 years? I’m not understanding how they would even begin to determine something like that after having discovered it last year.
In: Planetary Science
We have a very good understanding of orbital mechanics.
They aren’t making these statement because they watched the comet 80,000 years ago. They’ve watched the current approach and measured speed, distance, and direction. They then plug those numbers into orbital calculator and it shows the comet’s entire orbital path, including how long it takes for the comet to travel that path.
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