Recent AI discussions makes it almost certain that jobs would be affected. It makes me wonder what happened when suddenly humans were replaced by machines. Assuming a lot of jobs were lost was it that lots of people suddenly found it difficult to afford meals or was it not disastrous at all and was a smoot h transition? Can we compare it to today’s AI revolution in terms of adjustment with jobs?
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It would be hard to compare since the contexts are so different.
Pre-industrial revolution, the everyday lives (as far as consumption and production of goods) of most people were VERY simple by modern standards. So industrialization of any sort rapidly increased the available supply (at lower costs) and enabled millions to enjoy more consumption (variety, quality and quantity). The nature of employment changed but vastly INCREASED broadly speaking since there was mostly new consumption and less substitution.
Some argue that this era of rapid increases in consumption and production is perhaps reaching some kind of pinnacle. And that advances in automation today would essentially not increase the quality and quantity of goods produced. Rather there is more substitution. In this case, the hypothesis is that automation might reduce the need for human labor since what is produced is already sufficient for everyone.
It should be said that, broadly speaking, this has never happened in human history. Additional capacity to produce has nearly always led to an increased variety of consumption and that, in turn, leads to higher employment (albeit in different forms). This is not meant to be dismissive of the plight of displaced workers who might not find much use for their current skills.
It should also be noted that, while advances in technology plays a role here, trade and the ability to coordinate production, transport product and locate factories in disparate locations have probably made a much larger impact on the nature of local employment over the last 4-5 decades. The rust belt (for example) didn’t become the rust belt primarily because of automation but because the Japanese got better at making cars and US manufacturers reacted by relocating production to Mexico etc etc.
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