How were the Manhattan Project scientists able to predict the possibility of the atmosphere igniting after using an atomic bomb, and how did they come to the conclusion that the atmosphere wouldn’t ignite?

Question

Did the non-zero risk of the atmosphere igniting increase as nuclear weapon yields got larger and larger?

Obviously a result of watching Oppenheimer.

In: 789

Answer 1

Imagine if cars didn’t exist, and yet you just built one. You put the spark plugs in the engine and think to yourself. Oh no! what if the explosion travels up through the tubes and into the gas tank, blowing up the whole car? You do a ton of mathematical calculations, and the math says you are fine. But it’s impossible to take everything into account. The only reason we know that cars don’t regularly blow up is that we have many cars in the world and they don’t do that. But in the absence of that data, you can’t be super sure. As the movie says, “theory only takes you so far”