Did the non-zero risk of the atmosphere igniting increase as nuclear weapon yields got larger and larger?
Obviously a result of watching Oppenheimer.
In: 789
Conclusion: Energy not sufficient enough to initiate a sustained fusion reaction in Earths atmosphere.
During the early stages of developing atomic weapons, scientists, including Edward Teller, who later played a key role in developing the hydrogen bomb, raised concerns about the potential for a nuclear explosion to ignite the Earth’s atmosphere. The concern stemmed from the idea that the extremely high temperatures and energy released during a nuclear detonation might trigger a self-sustaining fusion reaction in the atmosphere, similar to what happens in a hydrogen bomb. This could potentially lead to a catastrophic chain reaction engulfing the Earth. To address this concern, scientists like Hans Bethe and Enrico Fermi performed theoretical calculations to understand the conditions necessary for a runaway nuclear reaction. **They concluded that while a nuclear explosion could indeed produce extremely high temperatures and pressures, the energy released in such an event would not be sufficient to initiate a self-sustaining fusion reaction in the Earth’s atmosphere. The energy requirements for such a reaction far exceeded what was achievable with the available nuclear weapons.**
Theoretical calculations were supported by experimental evidence from early nuclear tests. These tests showed that the energy released in atomic explosions was orders of magnitude less than what would be needed to ignite the atmosphere. In later years, as computer simulations and modeling became available, more sophisticated analyses were conducted to confirm the safety of nuclear testing. These simulations reaffirmed the earlier conclusions that a runaway atmospheric reaction was not a credible threat.
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