Everyone seems to think that their ISP doesn’t look at the data at all. That the encrypted connection, which is the whole point of the VPN and the main selling point, that bad actors in public places on public wifi can’t snoop your data; just isn’t going to be something that pops up to people.
The ISP knows you are using TOR, they see an encrypted connection and get suspicious. They know you are using a VPN from one of the commercial providers, they see the encrypted traffic.
Making it a finable offense to use a VPN means they just need to prove you are using one. Making it an offense to use Twitter on a VPN means they just have to prove you are using Twitter. Difficult, but not impossible.
To break it down, imagine a fleet of delivery vans. All taking packages to and from a destination. You have the mail van, the Amazon van, the various food delivery vans. Now imagine someone sets up a service where all your deliveries are routed through a warehouse and are delivered by special vans. They have no markings, but everyone got different deals on color. All your boxes are plain cardboard too. Now you can’t tell if it is your mail, your Amazon delivery, or your pizza. Everything comes in plain boxes by unmarked vans. The police watching your house don’t know what you are ordering or from where. They do know you are ordering things and they can figure out the service. So they demand the records. And find out everything delivered.
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