This would break online casinos because you could easily do that with electronics. Assuming the casino itself is playing fair.
If you could perfectly keep track of how many of which cards are left in the decks, and everytime make the most mathematically sound bet, would the house still have an edge?
(I assume the correct answer will start off saying I don’t understand how card counting works – fair enough, but what about the basic explanation of it did I misinterpret?)
In: Mathematics
Theoretically, yes. In fact, there are already some card counting strategies that come somewhat close to this (*cough*Griffin Ultimate*cough*) that give you a greater edge than the traditional Hi-Lo counting system you see in movies and TV shows.
But, it’s important to remember that the theoretical memorization you’re talking about is essentially impossible for any human to do without computer assistance (which would be a felony in any live casino). Online casinos are more vague, and to be quite frankly I’m not sure what the legality of computer assistance is for those.
If we’re talking what could theoretically be possible with computer assistance, then yes the best card counting strategy would essentially log which cards have already been played, calculate the ratios of what cards are left in the shoe, calculate the house edge based on those ratios, estimate an optimal line of play based on those ratios (card counters often deviate from basic blackjack strategy depending on the count), *and* calculate the optimal bet for you in the moment based on what your Kelly Criterion is at that specific moment in time.
Would all of these things be enough over the long run to overcome the house edge when you play in those “real time” online casinos? I’m not really sure. That’s a *lot* of complicated math and simulations that I’m not exactly equipped to do. But my hunch is that it’s probably not, based on the experience I’ve had counting in live casinos…
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