If card counting in blackjack is just keeping track of high cards vs low, does that mean if I could remember all the different cards used (i.e. how many 5s, how many 7s) I would be really good at blackjack?

Question

This would break online casinos because you could easily do that with electronics. Assuming the casino itself is playing fair.

If you could perfectly keep track of how many of which cards are left in the decks, and everytime make the most mathematically sound bet, would the house still have an edge?

(I assume the correct answer will start off saying I don’t understand how card counting works – fair enough, but what about the basic explanation of it did I misinterpret?)

In: Mathematics

Answer 1

For live dealer BJ – or any game where the state of the shoe is maintained between hands – the answer is yes. Nothing stops you from entering in each card that comes out and taking count of how many of each rank remain.

By having a better understanding of the shape of the deck, you can make better decisions based on that known shape.

So for example, if all the 5s and 6s are removed from the deck, does that change if you want to hit 14 or 15 on a dealer 10? The range of benefits to hitting changes and that new benefit profile has to be measured against the risk profile of standing and letting the dealer take their turn.

The problem is that any online casino live dealt game I’ve seen.. they shuffle 4 decks into an 8 deck shoe. As the information becomes more valuable as you get closer to the end of the shoe – because you can say with greater accuracy just what’s left – reshuffling half way through is a defense to this.