If the US economy functioned fine 10, 20, 50, and 100 years ago, when the population was ~half the size, why can’t it withstand a population decline now?
In: Economics
Given what we know of the circumstances, the US probably could adjust to declining population. First, the rate of decline is relatively slow (unlike some other countries) and the US has a relatively functioning system that is attractive to immigrants. Unless something really dramatic happens, the US probably adjusts well to a slow decline maybe in the order of 2-3% a decade. Not to say there won’t be some issues but the US has a lot of capital and knowhow which can help with an adjustment of this magnitude.
Where population decline is a big deal is when birth rates go so low that the working population drops very quickly (say 5-10% a decade). In a country that isn’t yet broadly wealthy per capita and with poor social safety nets, this will create significant social and likely political issues when the dependency ratio goes really high. The problem might compound because these very social issues make it even less likely that birth rates recover.
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