If there are two boxes. The first has a 100$ bill and a 1$ bill, and the second has two 100$ bills. If I puck a random box and take out a 100$ bill, whaat is the chance of me taking out another 100$ bill?

Question

I’m honestly stuck. I’ve seen people say 1/2, others 2/3. Something Monty Hall Problem, Bayes Theorem but I’m still confused so here I am.

Edit: I believe you are not allowed to change your box choice on the 2nd “turn” as that would make having two boxes pointless, wouldn’t it?

In: 10

Answer 1

If you’re allowed to pick a box again, you have a 2/3 chance of getting another $100 bill. Like you said, in this scenario the boxes are pointless.

If you have to stay with the same box you already picked, it’s simpler, you have a 50-50 chance. The only important choice you made was which box to pick. The fact that you already drew $100 bill out of that box is irrelevant. It doesn’t change the odds of you having picked the box with 2 $100 bills in it