If there are two boxes. The first has a 100$ bill and a 1$ bill, and the second has two 100$ bills. If I puck a random box and take out a 100$ bill, whaat is the chance of me taking out another 100$ bill?

Question

I’m honestly stuck. I’ve seen people say 1/2, others 2/3. Something Monty Hall Problem, Bayes Theorem but I’m still confused so here I am.

Edit: I believe you are not allowed to change your box choice on the 2nd “turn” as that would make having two boxes pointless, wouldn’t it?

In: 10

Answer 1

[Edit: I was wrong.]

Two boxes.

Box 1 ($100, $1)

Box 2 ($100, $100)

From the perspective of having grabbed a $100 bill, the probability of getting another in each box looks like this:

Box 1 (0% probability of drawing $100)

Box 2 (100% probability of drawing $100)

Combining these probabilities results in a 50% chance of drawing another $100 bill.