Context: I’m always told on big tests that if I run out of time I should bubble all A’s or something because it’s a better chance I get it right than if I sporadically bubble answers. Why isn’t it just a consistent 25% chance?
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This sounds like bad advice. First, it is almost certainly better to make an educated guess than a blind guess.
Second, if the goal is to maximise the chance of getting 25%, it probably won’t work.
There are two possibilities:
1. The letters are randomly distributed, and each question is independent of all others, in which case, it doesn’t matter at all what your strategy is, each guess is 25%.
2. There is some dependence between answers (eg, if there are three A’s in a row, then the chance of the next one being A is lower than 25%). In this case, there’s probably a better strategy than just picking A, but you don’t know what it is.
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