Context: I’m always told on big tests that if I run out of time I should bubble all A’s or something because it’s a better chance I get it right than if I sporadically bubble answers. Why isn’t it just a consistent 25% chance?
In: 0
**It’s not.**
The tests are written to have an approximately equal spread of answers, but that’s over the entire duration of the test not at every subgroup of 10 answers rolling through the test – and it is approximate.
If you’re at the last quarter of the test you have no way of knowing what the actual spread of remaining answers might be (unless you’re 100% confident of your previous answers and can then make a guess, and even then you won’t know for sure).
Checking all A is no more likely to net you more than 20% than randomly picking ABCDE. If it’s being marked by a human though they’re gonna immediately see where you ran out of time if the last 10 questions are all bubbled the same.
Better plan: Many multiple choice tests have at least one or two obvious dud answers. Very quickly rule out any obvious wrong answers – simple Eg: if the question is for multiplication and at least one number is even you can rule out any odd numbers from the answer, similar if both numbers are odd you can rule out any even numbers. If you can do this quickly you’ll boost your guess rate from approx 1 in 5 to ~1 in 3.
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