It’s a projection for how good the athlete could be at their peak. Scouts estimate it based on some raw physical attributes (height, speed), potential for physical development (can a player bulk up and become better as a result?), current skill level and how “polished” they are (say comparing route running of a wide receiver who’s been playing the position since he was 7 vs. a former QB who decided to shift to WR last season), looking at knowledge/intelligence in the sport, coachability/willingness to practice hard and learn, etc.
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