In statistics why isnt correlation equal to causation?

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Why are further post-hoc analysis required? I guess the question would be is what is correlation?

In: Mathematics

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Anonymous 0 Comments

Correlation just means that two data points tend to move together

Lets look at Ice Cream sales and drownings. If you were to run the numbers you’d see that these two things are very well correlated, ice cream sales and drownings are both low through winter, start climbing in late spring, peak in the summer, and decrease through the fall so does that mean that selling ice cream causes kids to drown?!?!

No

What it does mean is that there’s a common factor. In this case it would be outside temperature which is also correlated to both. As it gets hotter outside people start buying more ice cream, they also start swimming in pools more, and the more time spent in pools the more likely there is to be a drowning; but banning the sale of ice cream won’t have an impact on drownings even though they’re correlated because its not a *causal* relationship

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