So a co-worker was talking about someone’s stupid plan to always play the previous winning lotto numbers. I chimed in that I was pretty sure that didn’t actually hurt their odds. They thought I was crazy, pointing out that probably no lottery ever rolled the same five-six winning numbers twice in a row.
I seem to remember that I am correct, any sequence of numbers has the same odds. But I was totally unable to articulate how that could be. Can someone help me out? It does really seem like the person using this method would be at a serious disadvantage.
Edit: I get it, and I’m not gonna think about balls anymore today.
In: Mathematics
Theoretically, no number becomes more or less likely, even compared to prior performance, in a completely random environment. Even if you flip a quarter 11 times and it comes up heads every time, unless the quarter is rigged then it doesn’t make another heads any more likely. To think otherwise is called the Gambler’s fallacy. Looking up the gambler’s fallacy, and why it’s basically completely imaginary bias, might be the most direct answer your friend needs.
By that measure, the same winning numbers could happen twice in a row. Or more. It doesn’t make it something to count on. Any numerical sequence is as likely, in a completely random environment, within the range of the possible numbers.
There would have to be other, internal rules not publicly advertised, to change the possibility, yet for the most part the lottery commissions are required to advertise odds and criteria, depending on the state and country. It’s possible that behind the scenes, the lottery commissions would see a result and think it too… ridiculous, and redo a rolling. But this would be incredibly problematic to do.
There’s always going to be things going on under the hood. Minutia, like rolling machinescomputers replaced, lottery balls, tokens, etc., replaced, making minute changes in odds in reality, but you’re never going to be able to find out about all factors. So just choose what you want.
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