So a co-worker was talking about someone’s stupid plan to always play the previous winning lotto numbers. I chimed in that I was pretty sure that didn’t actually hurt their odds. They thought I was crazy, pointing out that probably no lottery ever rolled the same five-six winning numbers twice in a row.
I seem to remember that I am correct, any sequence of numbers has the same odds. But I was totally unable to articulate how that could be. Can someone help me out? It does really seem like the person using this method would be at a serious disadvantage.
Edit: I get it, and I’m not gonna think about balls anymore today.
In: Mathematics
Ask them to explain why it’s less likely that you roll a six after rolling another six on a six sided dice. Then get them to explain why that’s different than picking lotto numbers.
Humans are just very bad at calculating probabilities of very large numbers occurring.
The chances of any particular combination coming up in the lottery are always the same.
Previous results don’t effect subsequent draws. Thinking it does is just superstition.
If a particular number came up in the last draw, that has **no impact at all** on this weeks draw.
So logically you might think not that playing the same winning numbers two weeks in a row gives you an advantage… but it doesn’t.
The chances of last weeks numbers coming up a second time are astronomically small, but the chances are exactly the same as any other set of numbers.
To put it a different way, there’s no such thing as a ‘system’ for playing the lottery. Playing last weeks numbers, consistently playing the same numbers like your kids birthdays, or entirely random numbers have exactly the same chances of winning.
It doesn’t matter, the chances are the same.
It’s like flipping a coin. Just because the last 3 were heads has no impact on the next flip, it’s still a 50/50 shot (assuming a fair coin.) These are independent trials. So a repeat is still the same odds as any other number of winning the lotto – astronomical.
(Assuming the lottery in question allows duplicates, which as far as I know most do. It’s such a small chance I doubt they keep track.)
A lottery drawing does not remember the previous drawings. So, when looking at the chance, it does not matter which numbers you play. The new drawing does not depend on the previous ones. Of course, this is given that the lottery is fair.
1,2,3,4,5 is just as likely as 7,12,19,27,35 or any other string of numbers available in the lotto.
You aren’t any less likely to win, but if you pick some numbers that many other people picked, you will have to split the prize even if you win, so you are playing the same odds for a lower payout.
The winning pattern of numbers are not removed after they are drawn. 1,2,3,4,5 this week. Is just as likely as next week.
Flip a coin. It’s heads. If you the flip the coin again, the odds of it being heads is still 50/50. The lottery is like a 65 sided coin that is flipped 5 or 6 times.
They don’t take the number out of the lottery when it wins, so it’s not any more or less likely to win again.
If I put 1 red counter and 9 blue counters into a bag and tell you to pick one without looking and you take out the red one, then I put it back into the bag and tell you to pick again you have the same chance of picking the red counter a second time. The fact you picked it last time has no effect on your next turn when all the counters are returned to the bag before you pick.
Why would your odds be worse?
Someone asks you to pick a number between 1 and 10. They have a hat with 10 pieces of paper in it, each piece of paper is marked 1 through 10. They pull out the “4.”
They then put that piece of paper with the “4” on back in the hat and mix it up ask you to pick again.
The odds of them picking a 4 out the second time aren’t worse than the first time. In both cases, there is a 1 in 10 chance the 4 is picked. The results of the first selection have no bearing on the results of the second selection.
Yes, it’s true, assuming the lottery is fair and doesn’t cook the numbers to avoid such events. The fact that your friend has never heard about it happening is also likely.
The truth is, any sequence of numbers has the same chance of appearing next, even if it’s the same sequence. It’s unlikely, true, but as unlikely as you choosing the correct sequence.
2-3-10-15-20-20 to 10-20-30-40-50-60
1-2-3-4-5-6 to 1-2-3-4-5-6
Both chances are equally correct.
Assuming a 60 possible numbers and a pick of 6, there’s 50 063 860 possibilities. The possibilities are the exact same for both round, the previous results have no influence in subsequent lotteries. While the chances are low you’ll ever see to contests have the same combinations (because there’s 50 million of them), again, there’s no disadvantage, it’s the same as choosing any other sequence.
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