Game One: You are given a choice of three doors. You pick number one. The host opens one of the other two doors, having been given instructions that, if you pick the car, the host is to open one of the other doors, and if you pick a goat, the host opens the other door with a goat. Stalemate. It is a predetermined outcome.
Game Two: The prior game’s outcome stands. The new choice you have is do you keep door number one, or do you switch?
How do you have a 2/3 chance of winning if you switch?
In: 107
Here’s my ultra-simple explanation. If I told you you could pick two doors would you agree you’d now have a 2/3 chance to win? If that makes sense to you — here’s how you pick two doors. Let’s say your choice is doors 1 and 2 (don’t tell Monty). Start by picking door 3. Monty will now open one of your doors which doesn’t have the prize — just pick the other door.
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